I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.
When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:
During WWII the US Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:
So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald – a mathematician – started asking questions:
– how did you obtain that data? – well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. – and your conclusion? – well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire. – no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hitand return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.
This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.
BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.
My work is all about sunlight, the play of light on objects, the varying degrees of contrast between light and shadow, and deep, saturated color. Long shadows cast by buildings, window reflections, and pockets of darkness under eaves and in doorways all capture my attention.
I am exploring more, however, than merely the play of light and shadow on architectural form. I am drawn most often to older commercial buildings, early to mid 20th century bungalows squatting amidst tired or overgrown landscaping, dilapidated outbuildings and, everywhere, careworn campers, tottering on blocks, abandoned in fields or parked on the side of the road. Each building, each camper, every eccentric landscaping scheme has a story to ponder.
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We had a Dirty Santa Gift Exchange over Christmas for friends. I painted Vader and tossed him into the mix. Despite being hotly contested, my pal Trevor ended up with it and hung him up in the office. I dunno if I’d like Darth Vader looking over my shoulder as I worked hah!
Moon Hoon is really a unique talent, I am still amazed that his projects get built with renderings that defy expectations and seem to live in the land of pop culture illustration more than in the world of architecture.
